10月12日付けの米軍事専門誌Defense News 電子版に掲載されている“Japan To Emphasize Military Mobility With MCV” と題する記事の中で、当フォーラムの上席研究員であるグラント Ｆ.ニューシャム氏のコメントが引用されました。
以下に掲載いたします。
TOKYO — Starting in 2016, Japan’s military will begin reshaping part of a tank fleet originally designed to repel a Soviet invasion from the north into a more mobile force aimed at a possible Chinese invasion of the nation’s far-flung southern island chain
The replacement is the maneuver combat vehicle (MCV), a wheeled tank destroyer billed by the Ministry of Defense as a more flexible alternative to Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force’s (GSDF’s) three main types of tanks. With a 105mm cannon, the MCV will pack enough punch to fight heavy armor but can be rapidly deployed south when needed.
According to publicly announced plans, the MoD intends to reduce the GSDF’s tank force from 740 to about 300 over the next decade, with most being concentrated on the main islands of Hokkaido in the north and Kyushu in the south. According to this scenario, some 200 to 300 MCVs will be procured and airlifted to islands where they are needed.
Full Coverage From our AUSA Digital Show Daily
The MoD’s Technical Research & Development Institute has been developing the MCV since at least 2008; it displayed a fourth prototype in October 2013. Testing is scheduled to begin shortly and if all goes well, the GSDF will receive its first units in 2016. The MCV is being built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
The plan is proceeding smoothly, according to MoD spokesman Tsuyoshi Hirata, who said the deployment schedule and perhaps final number of MCVs will be reviewed over the next five years. The announced figures could change, he said.
“Based on the current Mid-Term Defense Program [MTDP] issued last December [2013], we plan to introduce 99 MCVs by the end of [fiscal] 2018. We have in mind to introduce about 300 MCVs,” he said.
The MoD plans to deploy the MCV in several rapidly deployable basic operational units (rapid deployment divisions and/or brigades) and rapid deployment regiments that will be formed.
“Please be reminded, however, that it is difficult to answer concrete number at this moment because the number will be reviewed at the time we form up the next MTDP and also we have to take into account the fiscal condition of Japan every year,” Hirata said.
While the MoD pursues the MCV, however, the vehicle itself raises several questions, according to local defense analyst Shinichi Kiyotani, who is an expert on GSDF procurement, logistics and armor.
The MCV, with a projected 400-kilometer range and a top speed of 100 kilometers per hour, is highly capable, he said, but its 105mm cannon could be just too powerful for some of the combat situations in which it might be used.
“At 105mm, the cannon is overkill for urban combat situations. The MCV could do just as well with a 90mm or a 76mm model, or even 40 or 35mm is good enough for a light tank,” Kiyotani said.
The big gun may make the MCV too heavy to be easily transported, he said. At 26 tons, the vehicle is near the projected carrying capability of the planned Kawasaki C-2 transport planes.
The MoD intends to start deploying the C-2 to the Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF), initially at Miho Airbase in Tottori Prefecture in western Japan, as early as next year. First, the plane must overcome some technical issues, including an incident this January when a door broke during pressurization testing.
The ASDF said it requires up to 60 of the planes to replace its aging Kawasaki C-1s. While the C-2 has a stated range of 3,023 nautical miles when carrying its maximum payload of 30 tons, it might struggle to carry the MCV, Kiyotani said.
“With its weight, only one MCV can be carried per C-2 and that will be at the limit when you add in maintenance crew and ammunition. To transport one squadron of 12 MCVs, you may need as many as 20-plus C-2s, and where is the ASDF going to find those planes during a war in a remote island?” Kiyotani said.
Also, the MCV might not be as robust as it looks, he argued. While it will use modular armor, it has a relatively delicate undercarriage and drive system that may be vulnerable to improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) in particular, he said.
And to save money, the MCV’s big gun will not have an automatic loader, requiring a crew of four who may have to fight in sweltering heat as the MCV lacks crew air conditioning.
“RPGs are a threat. The MCV is just a cheap tank. It’s the wrong concept,” Kiyotani said.
“One can always debate the merits of a 105mm versus something smaller, especially given advances in ammo technology that have made smaller guns rather lethal,” said Grant Newsham, senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, a Tokyo-based military think tank.
“There probably hasn’t been an armored vehicle introduced anywhere that didn’t have as many detractors as supporters,” Newsham said. “Recall the M1 Abrams introduction in the late ’70s, early ’80s. And even 75 years later people are still debating the M4 Sherman,” he said.
Regarding collateral damage, Newsham said that if Japan is using MCVs and its 105mm in an urban environment, the battle would have reached a stage where collateral damage isn’t much of a concern.
“You can move MCV around more easily than a battle tank and the 105mm gun has plenty of punch,” he said.
Newsham agreed that the MCV would be “a bit heavy” and may have less off-road ability than hoped for, but argued that the GSDF would also use commercially chartered aircraft and high-speed ferries to transport the vehicle because its potential operating area is fairly small and nearby.
“If there’s any sort of advance notice at all, a high-speed vessel could get MCVs to Nansei Shoto in 24-48 hours — assuming someone has thought through the requirements and put MCVs in the right locations with the right sealift prepared, and practiced. Moving MCVs around within the Nansei Shoto could take even less time,” Newsham said.
Regarding potential armor weaknesses, Newsham countered: “Everything is vulnerable to IEDs and to aggressive fighters willing to get in close and fight with RPGs and other anti-armor weapons.
“No armored vehicle is ideal for everything. It’s either too heavy, too light, drinks too much fuel, has wheels, has tracks, etc. At the end of the day, one can at least say the MCV is useful — certainly compared to a battle tank — for many of the things GSDF might do: island defense, [peacekeeping] and UN operations,” he said.
記事参照
http://www.defensenews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2014310120023
|
